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Wear-aware dispatch · DE-LU 2024 backtest

The best operating point is rarely the most efficient one.

DAMagedOpt prices cavitation, rough-zone stress and start-stop damage in euros, inside the same objective as revenue. The schedule that earns most is often not the most efficient one.

Run the optimizer on your turbineFree, no account, about 2 minutes
See the method and the caveats

+8.03% gross revenue uplift

+7.82% net after modelled wear, +€5.05M/yr

300 MW Francis reference unit, 400 m head
DE-LU day-ahead prices, full year 2024
Measured against a price-following baseline
Hill chart estimated from nameplate specs only
The problem

Nobody tells you what today's dispatch costs your runner

A unit is dispatched from setpoints frozen at commissioning, a cam curve and a trader's spreadsheet next to a SCADA screen. Prices move hour by hour and inflow moves with the weather. Every hour off the good zone spends runner, bearing and guide-vane life.

Plant automation optimises efficiency and is blind to price. Trading software optimises price and treats the machine as a MW block with no hill chart.

The solution

Damage priced in euros, next to the revenue

The engine runs a deterministic dynamic program over two coupled maps: a performance hill chart (efficiency against unit flow and unit speed) and a damage hill chart (cavitation, rough zones, off-design stress, start-stop cost). Reservoir stock is scheduled over the season, not the hour.

It will park the unit at lower efficiency whenever the wear avoided is worth more than the megawatt-hours lost — and accept hard wear when a price spike pays for it.

How it works

Three steps, and no SCADA integration to start

01

Estimate the two hill charts

You give four numbers: machine type, rated power, design head, rated flow. An ML estimator infers a performance hill chart and a damage hill chart from the specs alone.

02

Price the wear in euros

Cavitation, rough-zone operation, off-design stress and each start-stop become a wear cost in euros, which sits in the objective beside the revenue.

03

Run the dynamic program

Deterministic DP over a rolling day-ahead horizon and seasonal reservoir stock, then scored against a price-following baseline on real 2024 DE-LU prices.

What you get

Four things you cannot get from either incumbent

Wear expressed in money

A damage index per operating point and a wear cost in euros — per hour, per zone, per start. The unit your maintenance budget already speaks in.

A hill chart without measurements

No hill chart usually means no project. The estimator infers one from nameplate specs, and better data later lowers your fee percentage.

Reservoir stock over the season

The reservoir is not emptied to chase one good afternoon. Stock is scheduled across the season together with the day-ahead horizon.

A number that survives a colleague

Every figure we publish carries its reference machine, bidding zone, period and baseline, so an engineer can check it instead of believing it.

Evidence

What that number rests on

Price source
SMARD.de day-ahead, DE-LU bidding zone. No synthetic prices.
Period
2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31, reported as 8,784 hourly steps.
Sampling
Four representative seasonal weeks, 672 hours, scaled ×13.07.
Solver
Deterministic dynamic programming over a rolling day-ahead horizon.
Baseline
Price-following rule with no look-ahead, dispatching above the p79 price threshold.
Reference machine
300 MW Francis, 400 m head, 85 m³/s rated discharge, hill chart estimated from nameplate specs.

Nobody has bought yet, so there is no customer name on this page. The 2024 backtest and its named data sources are the only proof we show.

Read the full 2024 backtest
Pricing

You only pay when we deliver results.

Our fee is a percentage of the additional revenue (uplift) that DAMagedOpt generates for your plant. The better the data you provide, the lower your percentage.

Better data = lower cost
50%
of uplift

No Hillchart

DAMagedOpt estimates your turbine performance curves from operational data alone.

  • No hillchart data required
  • Performance curves estimated by our AI
  • Maximum compensation work by DAMagedOpt
  • Full optimization & monitoring included
Contact us for a custom assessment
45%
of uplift

CFD Simulation

You provide hillcharts generated by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation.

  • Numerical simulation hillcharts provided
  • Moderate data accuracy
  • Less estimation work needed
  • Full optimization & monitoring included
Contact us for a custom assessment
35%
of uplift

Scale Model

You provide hillcharts measured on a reduced-scale physical model in laboratory conditions.

  • Laboratory-measured hillcharts provided
  • Good data accuracy
  • Minimal estimation work needed
  • Full optimization & monitoring included
Contact us for a custom assessment
Best Value
20%
of uplift

Full-Scale Prototype

You provide hillcharts measured on the actual full-scale turbine — the gold standard.

  • Real turbine measurement hillcharts
  • Highest possible data quality
  • Near-zero estimation work needed
  • Full optimization & monitoring included
Contact us for a custom assessment

What is uplift?

Uplift is the additional revenue generated by DAMagedOpt's optimized dispatch compared to your plant's baseline operation. We measure it transparently so you only pay for real, verified gains.

What are hillcharts?

Hillcharts (also called turbine efficiency maps) show how efficiently a turbine converts water energy into electricity as a function of hydraulic head and flow rate. Higher quality hillcharts allow DAMagedOpt to build more accurate digital twins, leading to better optimization results.

2024 Real Market Proof

+8.03% gross revenue uplift on real DE-LU market data

300 MW Francis reference turbine · Full calendar year 2024 (annualised) · SMARD DE-LU day-ahead prices · spec-estimated hillchart

Naive baseline
€62.98M
/year
Price-following baseline after wear
DAMagedOpt optimized
€69.76M
/year
Deterministic DP · spec hillchart
Net uplift
+7.82%
+€5.05M /year

Methodology: Deterministic dynamic programming replayed over 4 representative 2024 DE-LU seasonal weeks (672 h), annualised by ×13.07 to a full leap year. Reference: 300 MW Francis turbine, spec-estimated hillchart (no measured data). Wear costs enforced identically for both strategies; wear is 3.5% of gross revenue.

Results are for a reference turbine under 2024 DE-LU market conditions. Your actual uplift depends on your turbine specs, hill chart quality, reservoir configuration, and local market prices.

Get the full 2024 backtest reportPDF · Instant download · €49

Methodology + results · Instant download · No sales call

5–7 business day delivery · One-time fee · No subscription · Stripe checkout

Paid Engagement · €900 flat fee

Turbine Uplift Diagnostic — what you get

  1. 1
    Send: turbine specs + optional hillchartRated power (MW), design head (m), machine type (Francis/Kaplan/Pelton/pump-turbine), optional measured hillchart or SCADA traces
  2. 2
    We deliver: full-year ENTSO-E/SMARD backtest + defensible uplift reportDeterministic DP replay over real 2024 DE-LU day-ahead prices. Same methodology as the €49 sample report — applied to your exact turbine.
  3. 3
    Fee credited: €900 deducted from your first uplift-based contractIf you proceed to a performance contract, the diagnostic fee is fully credited — it is not an additional cost.

The €49 proof report shows the exact methodology and format you will receive. Numbers in that report are for a 300 MW Francis reference turbine; your report uses your specs.

Indicative prior — not a guaranteed uplift. Accuracy improves with better hillchart data. Results depend on your turbine, reservoir, and local market prices.

5–7 business day delivery · One-time fee · No subscription · Stripe checkout

TURNAROUND

Typical delivery: 5–7 business days

Estimate your uplift savings

Enter your plant parameters to see what DAMagedOpt could generate for you

MW
GWh
€/MWh
€49 · instant PDF

Hydro Dispatch Uplift Report — the full 2024 method

Method, results and caveats of the 2024 DE-LU backtest on the 300 MW Francis reference unit. Download starts immediately after payment.

Buy the report — €49
€900 · one-time, credited against the first contract

Turbine Uplift Diagnostic — your exact turbine

You send rated power, head range, flow range, machine type and bidding zone, plus a hill chart if you have one. We return a full-year real-price backtest report in 5–7 business days. The €900 is credited against the first uplift contract.

Delivered in 5–7 business daysYour uplift depends on your specs, hill chart quality and bidding zone. The result is an indicative prior, not a promise.
Buy the diagnostic — €900See the format — sample report
Contact

Send us your unit and we will run it

Name, work email, installed capacity and machine type. We come back with a preliminary estimate within two business days.