Backtest Results: Real Market Data
Deterministic DP · DAMagedOpt vs. price-following baseline · Full calendar year 2024 (annualised)
+10.76%
Net value uplift vs baseline
€6,78M
Net gain / year (300 MW)
+11.13%
Gross revenue uplift
300 MW
Reference turbine
€23k/MW·yr
Uplift per MW
4 seasonal weeks × 13.07
Sampling method
Four Representative Seasonal Weeks
The annualised result is derived from 672 sampled hours spanning all four seasons of 2024, scaled by ×13.07 to a full leap year.
Winter (Jan)
2024-01-15 to 2024-01-22
Spring (Apr)
2024-04-15 to 2024-04-22
Summer (Jul)
2024-07-15 to 2024-07-22
Autumn (Oct)
2024-10-14 to 2024-10-21
Deterministic DP, SMARD DE-LU real day-ahead prices, spec-estimated hillchart
Methodology
- Price source
- SMARD DE real data (German DE-LU day-ahead, 2024)
- Backtest period
- Full calendar year 2024 · 672h sampled · ×13.0714 annualised
- Solver
- Deterministic Dynamic Programming (dp_deterministic)
- Baseline
- baseline_price_following
- Reference turbine
- Representative Francis Unit 300MW
Hillchart estimated from nameplate specs only — no measured, model-test, CFD, or SCADA data provided
Results are for a 300 MW Francis reference turbine under 2024 DE-LU market conditions. Hillchart estimated from nameplate specs only — no measured, model-test, CFD, or SCADA data. Your actual uplift depends on your turbine specs, hillchart quality, reservoir configuration, and local market prices. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Paid Report · Instant PDF Download
What's inside the €49 report
- Dispatch methodology: Dynamic Programming model, 36h rolling horizon, SMARD DE-LU day-ahead prices
- 2024 DE-LU headline results: gross revenue uplift +8.03% (+€5.23M), net uplift +7.82% (+€5.05M) — annualised from 4 representative seasonal weeks
- Month-by-month breakdown: optimised vs. baseline net value for Oct, Nov, and Dec 2024
- Wear cost analysis: quantified avoided turbine wear cost per dispatch decision
- Inflow model: Open-Meteo meteorological features → ML inflow forecaster (Grande Dixence proxy)
- Caveats & limitations: data sources, model assumptions, and real-world applicability notes
Full methodology + results + caveats · instant PDF download · no sales call
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